Case Fatality Rate Projections

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 is estimated to be in the 1 percent to 3 percent range. What does current data show, and what would be the current positive case load if we extrapolated the CFR rate to the current positive cases?

Note: only states with deaths are included.

Actual Data
State Positive Deaths CFR Based on known deaths,
cases would be...
Based on known cases,
deaths would be...
USA 28,749,791 515,151 1.79% 51,515,100 +22,765,309 287,498 -227,653
AK 56,886 305 0.54% 30,500 -26,386 569 +264
AL 499,819 10,148 2.03% 1,014,800 +514,981 4,998 -5,150
AR 324,818 5,319 1.64% 531,900 +207,082 3,248 -2,071
AZ 826,454 16,328 1.98% 1,632,800 +806,346 8,265 -8,063
CA 3,501,394 54,124 1.55% 5,412,400 +1,911,006 35,014 -19,110
CO 436,602 5,989 1.37% 598,900 +162,298 4,366 -1,623
CT 285,330 7,704 2.70% 770,400 +485,070 2,853 -4,851
DC 41,419 1,030 2.49% 103,000 +61,581 414 -616
DE 88,354 1,473 1.67% 147,300 +58,946 884 -589
FL 1,909,209 32,266 1.69% 3,226,600 +1,317,391 19,092 -13,174
GA 1,023,487 17,906 1.75% 1,790,600 +767,113 10,235 -7,671
GU 7,749 133 1.72% 13,300 +5,551 77 -56
HI 28,699 445 1.55% 44,500 +15,801 287 -158
IA 282,384 5,558 1.97% 555,800 +273,416 2,824 -2,734
ID 172,931 1,879 1.09% 187,900 +14,969 1,729 -150
IL 1,198,335 23,014 1.92% 2,301,400 +1,103,065 11,983 -11,031
IN 667,262 12,737 1.91% 1,273,700 +606,438 6,673 -6,064
KS 295,861 4,812 1.63% 481,200 +185,339 2,959 -1,853
KY 410,709 4,819 1.17% 481,900 +71,191 4,107 -712
LA 433,785 9,748 2.25% 974,800 +541,015 4,338 -5,410
MA 591,356 16,417 2.78% 1,641,700 +1,050,344 5,914 -10,503
MD 387,319 7,955 2.05% 795,500 +408,181 3,873 -4,082
ME 45,794 706 1.54% 70,600 +24,806 458 -248
MI 656,072 16,658 2.54% 1,665,800 +1,009,728 6,561 -10,097
MN 490,011 6,550 1.34% 655,000 +164,989 4,900 -1,650
MO 480,643 8,161 1.70% 816,100 +335,457 4,806 -3,355
MP 145 2 1.38% 200 +55 1 -1
MS 297,581 6,808 2.29% 680,800 +383,219 2,976 -3,832
MT 100,914 1,381 1.37% 138,100 +37,186 1,009 -372
NC 872,176 11,502 1.32% 1,150,200 +278,024 8,722 -2,780
ND 100,391 1,478 1.47% 147,800 +47,409 1,004 -474
NE 203,026 2,113 1.04% 211,300 +8,274 2,030 -83
NH 76,861 1,184 1.54% 118,400 +41,539 769 -415
NJ 812,609 23,574 2.90% 2,357,400 +1,544,791 8,126 -15,448
NM 186,922 3,808 2.04% 380,800 +193,878 1,869 -1,939
NV 296,190 5,037 1.70% 503,700 +207,510 2,962 -2,075
NY 1,681,169 39,029 2.32% 3,902,900 +2,221,731 16,812 -22,217
OH 978,471 17,656 1.80% 1,765,600 +787,129 9,785 -7,871
OK 428,997 4,534 1.06% 453,400 +24,403 4,290 -244
OR 157,079 2,296 1.46% 229,600 +72,521 1,571 -725
PA 948,643 24,349 2.57% 2,434,900 +1,486,257 9,486 -14,863
PR 101,632 2,062 2.03% 206,200 +104,568 1,016 -1,046
RI 128,781 2,547 1.98% 254,700 +125,919 1,288 -1,259
SC 525,865 8,754 1.66% 875,400 +349,535 5,259 -3,495
SD 113,589 1,900 1.67% 190,000 +76,411 1,136 -764
TN 782,206 11,543 1.48% 1,154,300 +372,094 7,822 -3,721
TX 2,686,818 44,451 1.65% 4,445,100 +1,758,282 26,868 -17,583
UT 374,850 1,976 0.53% 197,600 -177,250 3,749 +1,773
VA 585,700 9,596 1.64% 959,600 +373,900 5,857 -3,739
VI 2,714 25 0.92% 2,500 -214 27 +2
VT 16,083 208 1.29% 20,800 +4,717 161 -47
WA 344,532 5,041 1.46% 504,100 +159,568 3,445 -1,596
WI 621,654 7,106 1.14% 710,600 +88,946 6,217 -889
WV 133,445 2,325 1.74% 232,500 +99,055 1,334 -991
WY 54,764 682 1.25% 68,200 +13,436 548 -134
Data Sources: Johns Hopkins (Updated 10/16, 22:30) | NYT (Updated 10/16, 22:21) | Covid Tracking Project (Updated 10/17, 02:00)